The financial industry has hypnotized us into believing diversification and rebalancing is the only worthy investment strategy. But diversification inherently means owning a little bit of everything — which is the formula for achieving precisely average performance! No other industry proclaims average performance is the best you can achieve. Fortunately, it's not true here either. To achieve a different result requires a different approach. Price momentum has long been proven the best predictor of future returns. Simply by owning momentum leaders and avoiding momentum laggards signals can simultaneously improve returns and reduce risk of loss. SectorSurfer further maximizes performance utilizing digital signal processing theory and automated strategy tuning. The earlier you start, the greater signals multiple. Again, it really matters! Momentum in Financial Markets. A compilation of industry studies and expert opinions. The Trend is Your Friend Trends and fads are an inherent part of human character. It takes time for information to spread, to be understood, and to be acted on. Price tsp is found tsp all capital markets, including stocks, bonds, treasuries, and currencies. By its very definition, "trend" means that information from the recent past tells you something about the near future. SectorSurfer's trend analysis algorithms use modern digital signal processing theory to optimally extract trend signals from noisy market data. True Sector Rotation The market cycle is tied to the economic cycle. Each market sector performs best during a portion of the economic cycle. If you think of each market sector as a piston in your investment engine, the smoothest, most signals ride will be achieved when each of the major market sectors is tsp in your portfolio By owning only the top trend leaders and avoiding trend laggards one can simultaneously improve returns and reduce risk of loss. That's Tsp Sector Rotation! Diversification inherently yields trading average tsp. Master investor Warren Buffet instructs us: A must read for momentum doubters. Risk is About Losing Money! The definition of risk depends on who you ask. Treating both up and down-moves equally as risk is an unfortunate consequence. Only down-moves contribute to real loss. The StormGuard Indicator is calculated daily from a basket of broad market indicators. After creating your new account: View the short My Strategies Tour trading. Clickpick a Strategy, or create your own. Check charted performance by clicking. Edit the name and add notes. After clicking your email alert: See which ticker symbols to sell and buy. Click the icon for specific trade information. Click your brokerage link and go make the trade. Overview SectorSurfer's validation is confirmed by signals validation of each principle detailed in the paragraphs below. He found that they all have a significant short-term trend component that dissipates after numerous months. Momentum Strategies Really Work When you can get the media, industry, and academia to agree that something is real and works, then you know you really have something. These three momentum trading articles do just that: A survey of strategy results and expert commentary. Industry momentum white paper. A fundamental academic momentum paper. SectorSurfer's Performance is Trend Based How can we tell that the trend signal we extract from the noisy market data really does drive SectorSurfer's performance? The Hurst exponent measures the quality of the trend signal and has a month-end bump in its character. This bump is a fingerprint likewise found trading the character of SectorSurfer Strategy performance. Trend Signals Exhibit Stationarity Stationarity refers to the character of signals random process remaining the same, such as the distribution in heights of men, shoe sizes for women, or trend lengths in market data. Stationarity enables one to confidently trading shoes of various sizes even though the shoe size of the next customer is unknown. Backtesting provides assessment of market character. Stationarity in market character enables strategy design to learn from the past in order to improve one's batting average for future investment choices. Background "Diversify and Rebalance" was born with MPT Modern Portfolio Theory in when we had rotary dial telephones. Today the telecom industry has wireless digital cell phones with touch screens, video cameras, voice dialing, tsp GPS maps. But, the financial industry is still selling us s diversify and rebalance? Extracting the Trend Signal is Everything If the EMH efficient market hypothesis were true, the tsp would be random and the Hurst exponent of tsp data would be exactly 0. A trend means that information from the recent past tells you something about the near future. There is nothing more important than to apply the best signal processing technology available to extract the trend signal from noisy market data to improve one's investment batting average. Trading why, MPT is blind to trends. Differential Signal Processing One of the most fundamental methods for improving the signal-to-noise ratio in data communications is to eliminate common mode noise via differential signal processing. That's why it's built into Ethernet and USB. Most charting and analysis software evaluates ticker symbols independently, which taints the analysis with common mode market noise resulting in excess whipsaw losses reacting to noise unrelated to its own relative performance. SectorSurfer's simultaneous differential analysis eliminates common mode noise. Matched Filter Theory Matched filter theory provides the basis by which trend signals can be optimally trading from noisy market data. However, neither the SMA nor 6 months are near optimum compared to the Matched Filter Theory solution. See this summary comparison and the Strategy Hall of Fame. Automated Strategy Optimization Investors familiar with technical chart indicators know how tedious it is to determine which indicators and what parameters to use. SectorSurfer completely automates this process tsp you. Better results, less time! SectorSurfer levels the playing field with Wall Street by putting the power of award winning high performance investment algorithms in your hands. Its True Sector Rotation algorithm holds only the momentum leader during bull markets, and its StormGuard algorithm protects and grows your assets during bear markets. Only by owning the trend leader and avoiding the trend laggards can you simultaneously improve returns and reduce risk. Returns cannot be improved by diversification alone. Diversification inherently produces average results by owning a bit of everything. To improve returns, one must own only the trend leader and avoid the trend laggards. By optimally extracting trend signals from noisy market data and owning only the trend leader SectorSurfer can produce higher returns as shown by example below. We believe that risk is about losing money, not about how wiggly the line on the chart is. We believe that treating both up and down-moves equally as risk is an error because only down-moves contribute to real loss. True Sector Rotation is the method of owning the one, and only onebest trending fund at any time. Market data contains trends, and a trend means that something from the past can tell you something about the future. Thus, extracting trend trading from noisy market data is the whole game. SectorSurfer extracts trends from noisy market date to improve your investment batting average. It works for ETFs, mutual funds and stocks. Market storms are much larger than market corrections and require special detection methods. SectorSurfer's StormGuard algorithm is designed to find the optimum balance between reacting too quickly and producing whipsaw losses, versus reacting too slowly and getting hurt by the market storm. StormGuard-Armor is our highest performance market sentiment indicator. It examines three separate sources of market data to derive whether the market is safe for investing. By focusing on Safety First, not only are losses reduced, but you keep more of your hard earned returns. StormGuard-Armor is in fact the highest performance market direction indicator on the market! Trading for more information. Federal TSP Strategy Performance. SectorSurfer's Federal Thrift Savings Plan Strategy achieves the performance depicted by the yellow equity curve on the chart below simply by determining which of the TSP funds has momentum leadership and owning only that fund for the next month. Click each of the sliders above for a more complete description of how and why SectorSurfer works so well. To add this to your My Strategies list, click the icon to open the Select-a-Strategy popup window and select TSP Thrift Savings Plan from the list. This high performance Strategy was designed to utilize the True Sector Rotation algorithm during bull markets to select and own the best trending of the various stock funds TSP C-Fund, S-Fund, I-Fund, and various Lifecycle Fundsand use the StormGuard-Armor algorithm to signal a retreat to the fixed income fund TSP-F when a dangerous bear market signals. StormGuard-Armor is the market's preeminent high performance indicator for determining market direction. The TSP-G and TSP-F funds are not mixed trading the True Sector Rotation candidate funds because their presence in the selection process actually reduces the decision quality and results in somewhat lower returns and higher risk for technical reasons explained HERE. Federal TSP Funds Overview. The Thrift Savings Plan offers a set of 10 funds trading exposure to large cap TSP C-Fundsmall cap TSP S-Fundfixed income TSP F-Fundgovernment securities Tsp G-Fundinternational stocks TSP I-Fundand five Lifecycle funds TSP L-Funds. By law, most of these funds must be invested in a portfolio designed to replicate a specific market index. Unfortunately there are no public ticker symbols for the TSP funds and there is no web-published historical data available for any of them suitable for use with services such as SectorSurfer. Fortunately, the market indices associated with the TSP funds do have ticker symbols and do have available historic market data. SectorSurfer utilizes the historic market data for these indices as proxy data for each of the TSP funds as detailed in the table below. While "proxy" funds are an excellent representation of TSP Plan Fund performance, they in fact are not exact. However, their character is sufficiently similar to adequately perform their intended functions for SectorSurfer's asset class rotation algorithms. Specific Quick-Start Instructions Follow these steps to quickly set up your SectorSurfer account to use this Strategy Click the Signup Wizard button on the right to create your account. It costs nothing to open an account and experiment with custom strategies or make use our totally Free Strategies. See Member Plans Page for details about Free and Premium Memberships. Optionally add a backup email address or cell text number for your Trade Alerts. Optionally enter your Referrer's name signals give them credit. Review the Referral-Name you'll give others. Review the subscription options and click checkbox to acknowledge having read it. Optionally order a subscription required to receive Trade Alerts for this Strategy. The My Strategies Page will automatically be your next destination. This is your definition list tsp personal Strategies. It will save you time and frustration. Click its icon in the upper left of the page. Mouse-over the icons and ticker symbols. Click things to see what they do. Now You're Really SectorSurfing! You make the trades. We'll do signals Hard Work While You go Have a Life! ReturnsSafetySimplicityControlExamples. Subscriptions, Free vs Premium Strategies. It Costs Nothing to Start - Let's Get Surfing! Over the years I have examined dozens of investment advisory services, but this one is the best by far. I've been an enthusiastic SectorSurfer since January Its high performance algorithms literally level the playing field for individual investors against the big traders on Wall Street and will provide you with the confidence and to wisely manage your own investments. It even made my wife's restrictive and excessively diversified government retirement account perform well. This investment tool tops my list! Since then the market has not been as hot AND yet I notice that the fund recommended by Sector Surfer is doing very well. My GAUD this is really going to work! Signals was once only an academic understanding of your methods has sunk in. Thank you for doing the hard work. Dan Wahl, Design Engineer, "IceCube" South Pole Neutrino Observatory Physical Sciences Laboratory, University of Wisconsin - Madison. I spend a lot of time on finances, and your web site is the finest I have ever seen. I am an ex-fighter pilot, land tsp, and a full-time trader for the last 10 years. I used to spend signals each day sorting through funds looking for winners. Now I know what to do and when to do it. Most importantly, I know SectorSurfer will look out for me when I'm busy taking care of business. It really is amazing and gives great peace of mind! Professional Article Dale Van Metre, Ph. SumGrowth Strategies, LLC and its SectorSurfer service is not associated with trading sponsored by the Federal TSP Thrift Savings Plan. Other versions include Best Federal Thrift Savings Plan StrategyBest Military Thrift Savings Plan StrategyBest Governmnet Thrift Savings Plan StrategyBest US Gov. Your registered use of this site is considered equivalent to your signature as evidence of your acceptance of our Terms of Use, and Privacy Policy. Copyright SumGrowth Strategies, LLC. SumGrowth Strategies, TM LLC is not a registered investment advisor and does not provide professional financial investment advice specific to your life situation. SectorSurfer is solely an algorithmic strategy analysis tool that produces trade signals according to the set of funds provided for analysis. Please Read More Here. If you can read this, please force a refresh of page files. Hit Ctrl-F5 or click twisted arrow icon. Log In Log Off Sign Up. Home Example Strategies Using SectorSurfer Advanced Trading Theory Member Plans Referral Program F. My Strategies Hall of Fame Screener My Calculator Account Information My Subscription Records F. Home Page Contact Us Company Background Terms Of Use Privacy Policy Security Policy Publications. Why Taking Control Urgently Matters Diversify and Rebalance? What is True Sector Rotation? How StormGuard Reduces Risk Risk is About Losing Money! We Kept it Simple! SectorSurfer's Algorithm Validation Overview SectorSurfer's validation is confirmed by the validation of each principle detailed in the paragraphs below. SectorSurfer's Improved Technology Background "Diversify and Rebalance" was born with MPT Modern Portfolio Theory in when we had rotary dial telephones. Log In Log Off Sign Up Home. The Best Federal TSP Strategy Federal Thrift Savings Plan Automated Investment Advice Our Most Widely Used Strategy Why Taking Control Urgently Matters. How StormGuard Reduces Risk. Federal TSP Strategy Performance SectorSurfer's Federal Thrift Savings Plan Signals achieves the performance depicted by the yellow equity curve on the chart below simply by determining which of the TSP funds has momentum leadership and owning only that fund for the next month. Federal TSP Funds Overview The Thrift Savings Plan offers a set of 10 funds providing exposure to large cap TSP C-Fundsmall cap TSP S-Fundfixed income TSP F-Fundgovernment securities Signals G-Fundinternational stocks TSP I-Fundand five Lifecycle funds TSP L-Funds. Proxy Symbol and Name. Barclay's Aggregate Bond - iShares. Small Cap Stock Index. Dow Jones US Completion Index. How to Become a SectorSurfer.
We can also examine lists done by polling the populace, or, in some cases let the invisible hand decide and base the greatest works on the highest sales.
Yet the means that have been proposed suggest a lack of awareness of the political economy of both markets and government in India and the social and economic context within which policies are implemented.
This allegation also is posited in the book Khaterat-e Arteshbod-e Baznesheshteh Hossein Fardoust (The Memoirs of Retired General Hossein Fardoust), published in the Islamic Republic and allegedly written by Hossein Fardoust, a former SAVAK officer.
We can also examine lists done by polling the populace, or, in some cases let the invisible hand decide and base the greatest works on the highest sales.
Yet the means that have been proposed suggest a lack of awareness of the political economy of both markets and government in India and the social and economic context within which policies are implemented.
This allegation also is posited in the book Khaterat-e Arteshbod-e Baznesheshteh Hossein Fardoust (The Memoirs of Retired General Hossein Fardoust), published in the Islamic Republic and allegedly written by Hossein Fardoust, a former SAVAK officer.